Justise Winslow Scouting Report

NBA Position: Wing

TS% eFG% % FG Rim FG% at Rim % FG 3pt 3pt FG% FT% FTA 40 Min Steal % TO 40 Min ASS 40 Min USG PER
.576 55.5 43.2 68 31.1 41.7 64.4 5.4 2.2 3.8 2.9 22.8 22.4

*Stats provided for by synergysports.com, sportsreference.com, draftexpress.com and hoop-math.com

Strengths:

  • Prototype Size (6’7) and Frame (229 Pounds) for an NBA Wing
  • Plus Athleticism, Leaping Ability and Deceptive Speed
  • Instant Accelerator
  • Elite Body Control as a Finisher with Subtle Craftiness
  • Elite Finisher at the Rim with Frame to Absorb and Finish Through Contact Especially in Transition
  • Can Finish with Either Hand At High Speeds with Soft Touch
  • Harden-Like Ball Show and Euro Step in Transition
  • Spot-Up Three Point Shooting
  • Attacks Closeouts with Both Hands and Solid Burst
  • Advanced Feel for the Game, Instincts and Nose for the Ball
  • Unselfish Player and Adept Passer, Especially on Drop-Offs
  • Defensive Versatility
  • Lateral Agility and Strength to Defend NBA Wings
  • Tracks Ball Well While Still Tracking His Own Man
  • Good Awareness on Rotations, Makes Solid Disciplined Closeouts
  • Swiss Army Knife: Contributes Across the Board
  • Toughness
  • MKG Like Character, Work Ethic and Intangibles

Winslow has prototype size and an NBA ready frame to guard NBA wings. He’s also still reportedly growing, having already shot up an inch and a half from 2013 to 2014. Winslow offers a rare blend of athleticism, body strength, leaping ability and very deceptive top end speed. He’s also an instant accelerator, capable of getting to top speed quickly with the ball and under control.

What really stands out about Winslow is his body control as a finisher. He’s an excellent finisher at the rim, using his frame and expert body control to finish through contact. While not a Wiggins-esque high flyer, Winslow seeks out contact using his combination of speed and power, but instead of bulldozing through defenders he adds a dash of craftiness, ducking around a defender’s body enough at the last second to draw contact but still finish. Winslow has the ability to finish with either hand, and does so often at incredibly high speeds, showing the touch and control to convert, aiding his finishing ability in transition.

Speaking of transition, Winslow displays traits similar to James Harden. He’s adept at showing the defender the ball on the move, and swinging his arms up through contact, possessing the strength to still get a shot attempt up. He’s also shown a Harden-esque euro-step finish repeatedly, which is as effective as it is aesthetically pleasing.  The following positional stats exemplify Winslow’s transition prowess:

Play Type Freq. PPP Rank Rating FG% aFG% TO% %FT
P&R 7.9 .571 22% Below Average 44.4 44.4 37.1 14.3
Transition 20.7 1.261 83% Excellent 68.2 71.2 15.2 19.6
Spot Up 27.9 1.113 84% Excellent 44.4 60.6 9.7 12.1
Isolation 8.3 .486 11% Poor 21.4 21.4 13.5 16.2
Off Screen 9.1
Cut 9.7 .907 23% Below Average 44.1 7 18.6
O Reb 6.5 1.207 74% Very Good 66.7 6.9 24.1
Post Up 5.8 .846 64% Good 45 0 26.9

As a shooter, Winslow is criminally underrated. While his release is a touch slow, the result is pretty damn accurate. Winslow is deadly as a catch and shoot three point shooter when left unguarded, as the following shows:

Catch & Shoot HC Frequency PPP Rank Rating FG% aFG%
Guarded 60.2 .962 52% Good 32.1 48.1
Unguarded 39.8 1.543 90% Excellent 51.4 77.1

He enjoys optimal spacing at Duke with Okafor drawing defenses in and being surrounded by a plethora of shooting, and he definitely capitalizes. He’s also adept at attacking closeouts, showing solid initial burst, good handle and the ability to attack going left and right on the way to the basket. As an off-ball offensive wing in the league, it is paramount to be able to space the floor and at least attack closeouts with a passable handle with a few dribbles. Winslow has shown he is more than capable in that regard, and is certainly a three dribble guy.

Winslow’s instincts, feel for the game and swiss-army knife across the board contributions are in conglomeration perhaps his best qualities. Winslow can affect a game tremendously and in diverse fashion without touching the ball. He’s ALWAYS around the ball, either jumping in passing lanes or slipping in for contested 50/50 rebounds. He’s an excellent passer, making last second drop-off passes to bigs on the move and unselfishly passing immediately along the perimeter instead of holding the ball. You just don’t find many wing players with Winslow’s talent who have the court awareness and unselfishness to do all the little things that your standard “role players” are usually charged with.

Defensively, Winslow has the lateral agility to wall off opposing perimeter players on drives, and due to his strength is a plus on-ball defender who can navigate screens in pick and roll:

Play Type Freq. PPP Rank Rating FG% aFG% %TO %FT
Spot Up 39.7% 1.143 14% Poor 48.6 60 6.5 3.9
Iso 15.5% .767 47% Average 43.5 43.5 13.3 13.3
P&R Ball 21.6 .452 92% Excellent 20.6 20.6 14.3 9.5

He shows good discipline on closeouts despite slightly above average length, often staying grounded instead of unnecessarily jumping or fouling shooters. For wing defenders, closing out at high speeds with forward momentum and still having the agility and control to stop and wall off penetration is the hardest skill to possess. Winslow is promising in this area. Off the ball, Winslow can maintain track of his man and make the necessary weak-side rotations, while also tracking the ball, which is rare. Because of his size Winslow can also switch assignments in transition on the NBA level without it resulting in costly mismatches, a key/underrated part of the Warriors success this year. Winslow’s effort level, frame and ball instincts also carry over to the defensive rebounding department, as he secures 6.8 rebounds per 40 minute pace adjusted according to draftexpress.com’s statistical database.

Lastly, Winslow has MKG-like work ethic and character, and coming from the self-proclaimed king of the Kidd-Gilchrist fan club, that is saying something (at least for me). Simply put, you want guys like Winslow in your organization to develop a culture and a winning environment.

Weaknesses:

  • Half-Court Shot Creation out of Pick and Roll and Isolation
  • Handle in Half-Court Close Quarters
  • Lack of a Go-To Scoring Move Off the Dribble
  • Shooting Off The Dribble and Mid Range Game
  • NBA Three Point Range?
  • Slightly Slow Release, Mechanically Can Shoot on the Way Down at Times
  • Cutting/Slashing Off the Ball Experience
  • Average/Above Average Length to Contest Shots

There are not a lot of holes in Winslow’s game, but half-court scoring is his greatest weakness. That Harden-esque ball show and swing through in transition and eurostep hasn’t translated to the haflcourt, lower pace setting without a more open floor. While a gifted spot up shooter and transition scorer, the latter has simply not translated to halfcourt scoring. He has not shown a consistent ability to create his own shot off the dribble in isolation and does not have a great feel in pick and roll from a scoring perspective. His handle is not advanced enough to operate in close quarters, and he does not currently possess a go-to scoring move off the dribble to create space. He’s a sizably better shooter off the catch than off the dribble, and he rarely shoots off the latter. Winslow also does not possess much of a midrange game, mostly because he either takes it to the rim or spots-up behind the three-point line. Mechanically, Winslow does not have an overly quick release, and sometimes shoots on the way down from his jump. While he’s been a plus college three-point shooter, he’ll need to hit NBA threes consistently to maximize his utility. His pre-draft workout shooting from three is something to monitor. Winslow also does not have a lot of experience moving off the ball slashing to the basket, but some of that can also be attributed to Duke’s scheme and spacing for Okafor. He’s a very instinctive player, so adjusting to moving without the ball and finding openings in the defense should be a science he masters over time.

It also bears mentioning (starting to stretch now) that Winslow does not have the longest arms, not possessing the same wingspan as fellow draft wings Stanley Johnson or Kelly Oubre. Putting a lot of stock in college defensive positional stats is foolhardy, but the following stats at least shed light on the fact Winslow does not have absurd Kawhi Leonard length (few do):

Catch & Shoot HC Frequency PPP Rank Rating FG% aFG%
Guarded 43.9 .92 57% Good 32 46

Scheme Fit:

Offense: Up-tempo, System Versatile

Winslow can be utilized in any system, but to maximize his utility he should be placed on a team with relatively high pace that pushes the ball to capitalize on his transition prowess.

Defense: Switching, Overload, System Versatile

Defensively, Winslow can similarly be employed in any scheme, but due to his size, frame, lateral agility and instincts he can be utilized more aggressively. Winslow can be asked to cover ground rotating to the strong side while keeping track of his man in the weak side corner. He can also to be asked to switch on the fly, possessing the awareness to locate assignments and the frame and quickness to cover most guards and wings plus some hybrid big men. Winslow will likely draw the opponents best wing scorer on nightly basis. As mentioned above, Winslow can also switch in transition to pick up assignments efficiently without the risk of mismatches.

Team Fit: Phoenix Suns

The Suns’ transition-oriented, early offense attack would suit Winslow’s transition skills optimally. Despite drafting TJ Warren last year, a masterful finisher around the rim, Phoenix’s biggest need is still on the wing. Hornacek is one of the most creative lineup coaches in the league and often implements small lineups where the Suns play multiple wing players, creating playing time for Winslow (the Suns would obviously need a lot of lottery luck for this scenario to play out after dealing the Lakers pick to the Sixers for Knight).  Overall, with more ball-dominant players such as Bledsoe and Morris using a lot of possessions, Winslow can ease in to the league in a similar role he currently plays. He also possesses the toughness and character of the Suns’ lowkey culture.

NBA Comparison: Better Shooting, Longer, Slightly More Athletic Jimmy Butler

Winslow’s game in being a swiss-army knife contributor while doing all the little things without needing the ball to impact a game remind me of Butler. Winslow is definitely a more accomplished shooter at this stage, but his inability to create shots in the halfcourt as a scorer is one of the reasons Butler somehow fell to 30th overall (Butler also fell because he couldn’t shoot threes and had short arms). We’ve seen how well someone with Butler’s character, work-ethic and blue-collar unselfish approach have worked out. He has developed a nice halfcourt scoring game and is an expert at drawing fouls too. Winslow is built similarly in terms of mental makeup. While he will probably never be a James Harden like scorer, Winslow could easily emerge as a plus in that department. The rest of his game is really already there.

Potential: All-Star

Winslow requires little usage to positively impact a game, and two-way wing defenders in the 3 & D mold who have the versatility to switch defensively have proven to be exponentially valuable in today’s NBA. If Winslow can hit the NBA three, and at this point there is no reason to assume he can’t, he is at the very least a combination of those things at minimum, while adding being an absolute destroyer in transition scoring the ball. If his half-court offense develops in the scoring department he could become an all-star. Winslow is a special player who will only improve and I would currently take him over any player not named Towns or Russell in this draft.

 

 

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