Category 12 Wings: 1 Position Defenders + 1 Skill Shooters

Category 12 Wings: 1 Position Defenders + 1 Skill Shooters

(Skills: Generational Spot Up and Off Screen Shooting With Scheme Changing High Frequency Off Screen Ability)

  1. J.J. Redick (Senior) #11
  2. Kyle Korver (Sophomore) #51

I. What Sets Them Apart

Perhaps the biggest outlier of all 30 positional archetypes, Redick and Korver are exceptions to the rule that most 1 position defenders +  1 skill shooters fall by the wayside. It’s just tremendously difficult to shoot well enough and be the type of on the move gravitational force to the level that offsets the lack of on-ball creation and limited defensive ability.

We’re talking about legitimately two of the best shooters off all time who add scheme changing ability to shoot running off screens at high frequency.  Redick has made a career sprinting around the perimeter and sizing up at high speeds on the move curling around screens to shoot quickly.  Korver has better size to shoot over closeouts but makes his living the same way.

Both players are the primary initial cogs in their respective offenses.  They’re not the primary creators of course, as both lack any semblance of on-ball handling, but their ability to sprint off screens in floppy sets is usually the initial action that bends defenses. Even when they aren’t shooting their presence alone can create offense for teammates, something that can’t be captured really by most statistics.

Overall, the theme throughout this will be “outlier”.

A.Elite Generational Shooting/Offensive Impact

2014/15  Regular Season TS% (All Qualified)

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  • Just to highlight the elite level of shooting we’re talking about here, Korver was the best shooter in the league 2 years ago.

2015/16  Regular Season TS% (All Qualified)

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  • …..And Redick was right on the heels of Curry and Durant last year for top honors.

2013/14 Regular Season ORPM

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  • Off ball shooters are rarely ever +2 offensive players, a spot usually reserved for efficient on-ball creators. Both Redick and Korver shooting well enough to land this high is pretty incredible.

2014/15 Regular Season ORPM

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  • Not to be outdone, Korver upped that +2 figure in 2013/14 with one of the best shooting seasons off all time in 14/15, resulting in a +4 ORPM.

2015/16 Regular Season ORPM

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  • Redick was the best spot up shooter in the league last year and didn’t even finish in the top 10 in ORPM. It’s only one metric, but it’s a good general indicator of overall impact.
  • We see just how much of an effect a “down year” for Korver as a shooter (still at almost 40%!!) had on his ORPM.

2015/16 Regular Season Spot Up Playtype

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  • Both of these players have lightning quick releases to shoot over closeouts in spot up situations, and both do so in historical fashion.

B.Elite Generational On the Move/Off Screen High Frequency Shooting

2015/16 Regular Season Off Screen Playtype

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  • The lifeblood of Redick and Korver, and what separates them from stand-still spot up shooters, is the ability to shoot running off screens on the move at high frequency.  Without that, they’re Anthony Morrow types, knockdown spot up guys who you can’t scheme an offense around using their gravitational pull on the move and who coaches ultimately don’t trust on defense.

2015/16 Regular Season DHO Playtype

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  • Another way to get these guys free on the move is to get them a head of steam running off DHOs right into dribble pull-ups.  This is one of the primary cogs in the Clippers’ offense specifically.

2015/16 Regular Season Off Dribble Pull Up Jumpers

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  • Going hand in hand with DHOs is the ability to shoot off the dribble, where both these players are adept.

C.1 Position Defense

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  • Advanced metrics love Korver’s team defense, and that meets the eye test.  Korver is a smart team defender who knows where to be rotation wise.  Korver’s size renders him not a total liability when he’s forced to switch, but he’s still almost always placed on the inferior wing on the other team, ergo the “1 position” designation.  Neither Redick nor Korver guard lead guards at the point of attack, and neither guard the primary wing scorer.  They have become good enough team defenders to get by, but they are not plus defenders, especially individually on ball.

II. College Indicators/Translations

1.Measurements

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  • Korver’s size allows him more positional versatility than Redick, but his lack of length and athleticism of course curb his upside defensively.  Redick has a minus wingspan to pair with below average athleticism and minus height, rendering him even more of an outlier.

2.40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

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  • Notice the elite combination of scoring, 3pt attempts, 3pt%, FTAs and FT% (FT% especially).

3.Efficiency

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  • It’s not surprising to see this outlier elite level of shooting efficiency and high percentage of 3pt attempts.  Both also sported above average A/TO marks, indicative of their overall basketball intelligence.

4.Usage

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5.Skill Translations

  • Redick:
    • Elite shooting
    • Intelligence
    • First Contract Translation: Rotation
  • Korver:
    • Elite shooting
    • Intelligence
    • First Contract Translation: Rotation/Starter (AS Yr 12)

III.Overall Takeaways

  1. Generational Outliers: Redick was a low level rotation player in Orlando, worked his ass off and didn’t even start full time until his 8th season in the league at age 29 playing next to the best lead guard of our generation in an ideal setting fully optimizing his game.  Korver’s best season came at age 33 in his 12th season with a genius offensive coach.  The success of these players are way more exception than the rule.
  2. Importance of Shooting Off Screens As A Scheme Changer: If you’re going to roll with a player of this ilk,  they better be adept shooting off screens.  This is the reason I had Murray ranked as a first rounder (24th overall) and Hield as a second rounder: Murray’s ability to run off screens was advanced for his younger age, whereas that’s not Hield’s game.  Murray also has ball-skills (whether he can get separation against superior NBA athletes is another question entirely), so he can be put in category 8, but even with that advanced off-screen shooting acumen his odds of reaching this level are low.  It just rarely happens.
  3. Lack of a Floor: When you put all your eggs in the shooting basket without legitimate athleticism, ball-skills or defense especially the bust rate is too rich for my blood.  I prefer a legitimate floor in some area outside of shooting to invest high draft capital in, which is why I had two-way guys like Bembry and McCaw ranked ahead of Murray in the draft.

Stats provided by NBA.Com, ESPN.Com, Draftexpress.Com, Sports-Reference.Com, Hoop-Math.Com and Basketball-Reference.Com

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